I wrote a little app to download poll data from FiveThirtyEight.com and then imported the data into a MySQL database table. I then calculated based on weighted average the Electoral College vote tally. The newer the poll, the more I valued it. I had noticed that the Morning Consult polls of 12/14 (GA, PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ and NC) were not in the data and since the poll data I looked at was kind of old, I felt it was statistically ok to add those polls.
Without those polls Trump was getting 265 EV to 211 for Biden. After adjusting those states which had no polling data to historically how they usually vote, it became 279 to 254 electoral votes respectfully. Including the poll data from Morning Consult it becomes 310 to 223 electoral votes respectfully.
I believe this election if it continues along the current trends with Trump vs Biden, it could become very similar to the 1980 election cycle. That’s right, it could very easily turn into a blowout!!! If I was the Democrats I would get both Biden and Harris to step aside, neither one appears to be electable. If the Republicans were smart, they would nominate Haley, she seems much more presidential and reasonable and would be more electable in a traditional contest. I intend to vote for her in the Caucuses, not that it will do much good.
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